Everyone who plays casino games – from newbies to experienced card players – have strategies and plans they like to stick to. After all, when it comes to luck, it is only human to want to try and find a pattern or two! However, there are a number of patterns and correlations that don’t actually help our games in practice. But how easy is it to identify unhelpful patterns, or those that simply won’t convert?
The answer is, of course, that it’s hard to know when your patterns are failing to convert. Strategies for poker, blackjack and even playing slot games are rife all over the web and across casino lounges worldwide. However, whether you are playing cards at an NJ online casino or are spinning the reels in Vegas, there is one pattern system you will need to keep a close eye out for – the Gambler’s Fallacy.
What is the Gambler’s Fallacy?
The Gambler’s Fallacy, as the name suggests, is a pattern theory that can sometimes lead casino players into a trap. Ultimately, it is the belief that an event is likely to go a certain way if the opposite has happened recently, or enough times to negate it happening again.
For example, consider throwing a die. If you roll a four three times in a row, you may be willing to believe that it’s unlikely to come up on the fourth throw. The same applies, again as an example, if you flip a coin five times, and it comes up with tails four times in a row. There’s a thought process that can activate where we believe heads is due, or that a four definitely isn’t going to roll out next time.
Further to this, the Gambler’s Fallacy suggests that an event occurring a lot in the past makes it less likely to occur in future. The inverse applies, too – that if an event occurs rarely in the past, it ‘must be due’. Casinos can be secretive, but it’s no secret that regulated games are completely random!
How does this apply to casino games, and why doesn’t it matter?
You can apply the Gambler’s Fallacy to all games you’ll find in the casino. It’s the thought process that convinces you black will be due when red has come up five times out of six. It’s the same process that suggests you are due to activate the bonus feature in a slot game if it’s not appeared after 15 minutes of play.
Ultimately, the random nature of casino games, as well as the house edge to some extent, negates the reasoning behind Gambler’s Fallacy. While you may feel as though a certain event or turnout is due if it hasn’t appeared for a while, it is still pure chance. The odds of you rolling a four from that die another three times may differ, but it is still completely random. Dice probability is highly complex!
Therefore, paying attention to patterns in randomized casino games is a dangerous move. It’s more important to keep an open mind – and to keep close control of your bankroll!